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Using Climate Data to Predict Grizzly Bear Litter Size

Using Climate Data to Predict Grizzly Bear Litter Size

A 5-year double-blind test was conducted to test the predictive capability of a previously published (Picton 1978) regression (Y = 2.01 + 0.042x), which described the relationship between the litter size of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) and an index of climate plus carrion availability (climate-carrion index). This regression showed an efficiency in excess of 99% in predicting the observed grizzly bear litter size. The predictions made using the climate-carrion index had a mean absolute error of less than 25% of forecasts using other methods. The updated climate-carrion index regression, which includes all of the 16 years for which data are available, is Y = 2.009 + 0.042x (r = 0.78; P < 0.01; N = 16). We concluded that the climate-carrion index can be a helpful tool in predicting grizzly bear litter size. The relation of this information to the effects of the closure of Yellowstone Park garbage dumps is discussed.

  • Author(s) Harold D. Picton and Richard R. Knight
  • Volume 6
  • Issue
  • Pages 41-44
  • Publication Date 1 January 1986
  • DOI 10.2307/3872804
  • File Size 162.86 KB
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