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2003.14(2)--171-187.pdf | Download |
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We appraised the extent of potential core and source areas in a 162,300-km2 study area centered on the current range of Yellowstone's grizzly bears (about 37,600 km2). We modeled habitat productivity based on habitat types defined by differences in grizzly bear foraging behavior and associated coefficients of productivity. We coupled habitat productivity with a previously defined model of remoteness from humans to model habitat suitability. We defined core areas as patches >900 km2 where habitat suitability values were >1 SD above the study area mean. We also modeled the distribution of grizzly bear deaths in the Yellowstone region, 1989-99, as a function of explanatory landscape features and used this model to identify potential source areas. This model suggested that grizzly bears died primarily as a function of (1) frequency of contact with humans and (2) whether humans were encountered in lethal settings such as public-land grazing allotments or areas outside National Parks. We identified 27,032 km2 of core areas and 47,807 km2 of potential source habitat. Core areas were 98% contained by source areas. The Wind River (3,358 km2), Palisades (2,036 km2), and Centennial (1,691 km2) core areas occurred largely outside current grizzly bear range. The existence of potential source habitat along and north of the Centennial Mountains suggests that the prospects for eventual connectivity between the Yellowstone grizzly bear population and potential grizzly bear range in central Idaho are better than previously thought.