The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population in Wuyipeng is a well-protected, well-studied population, and many parameters for population viability analysis (PVA) computer modeling are available. We used Vortex software (Version 5.1) to model the conservation status of the Wuyipeng giant panda population. The initial population size modeled was 25 in 1981 at Wuyipeng, with a carrying capacity of 62. Because of a bamboo (Bashania fangiana) die-off in 1983, carrying capacity declined from 62 to 50, with a 4.21% annual decrease for 5 years. Results showed a potential annual growth rate of 1.066. Though this small population has a potential for population growth, the extinction rate of all simulations were >10%, and expected heterozygosity retained <80%, even without inbreeding depression or catastrophes. All extinction rates modeled failed to meet the minimum tolerance of 2% for probability of extinction in 100 years set by the conservation objectives under realistic assumptions. Therefore, these results support immediate conservation measures for wild giant pandas in China.
- Volume 9
- Issue
- Pages 19-23
- Publication Date 1 January 1997
- DOI 10.2307/3872656
- File Size 222.66 KB
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