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Managing the Risk from Hunting for the Viscount Melville Sound Polar Bear Population

Managing the Risk from Hunting for the Viscount Melville Sound Polar Bear Population

Managers of harvested polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are required to determine current status and sustainable harvest levels. Time series population estimates are unavailable or suspect for most polar bear populations, including the Viscount Melville Sound (VM) population in Canada. Between 1974 and 1992, 194 polar bears were captured within VM. We used mark-recapture and standing age analyses to estimate population size and the rates of birth and death for this population. Both the current and historical harvest were also recorded. From mark-recapture data, we estimated (1) age and sex-specific natural and total survival and (2) population size from estimated capture probabilities that varied by year and were higher for females with satellite transmitters. The average population estimate for 1989-92 was 161 bears (SE = 34). We used a simulation model to estimate the population growth rate without harvest at 1.059 (SE = 0.063). Historical harvest levels and changes in the population standing sex and age distribution and sex ratio indicated that the population had been reduced by over-hunting. Using Monte Carlo simulations that utilized the estimated variability in demographic parameters, we explored the risk to this population associated with a range of harvest rates. Because of uncertainty in our estimates, we found that the population was at risk at harvest levels less than the estimated sustainable kill. The estimated risk was proportional to harvest level. Large harvest rates increased the risk of further reductions to the population and extended the recovery period that would likely be required to return the population to its current number relative to lesser harvest rates. We question the value of frequent population inventory for Viscount Melville Sound because the small size of this population constrains both the precision and the accuracy of demographic estimates. We recommend instead conservative and precautionary harvest policies to reduce the risk of harvest and enhance long term recovery of this population.

  • Author(s) Mitchell K. Taylor and Jeff Laake and H. Dean Cluff and Malcolm Ramsay and François Messier
  • Volume 13
  • Issue
  • Pages 185-202
  • Publication Date 1 January 2002
  • DOI
  • File Size 1.29 MB
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