Determining Minimum Viable Population Sizes for the Grizzly Bear

January 1, 1983

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A stochastic computer simulation is presented for use in determining the relationship of population size to extinction probabilities for populations of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). Published data on numbers, age, sex, reproduction, and mortality for the grizzly bear population of Yellowstone National Park were used to develop and test several simulation models. The results indicate that, for the Yellowstone grizzlies, 35 to 70 bears constitute a minimum viable population (the smallest population with a 95% probability of surviving at least 100 years). Minimum area requirements for populations of this size range from 700 to 10,000 km.

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